Oh My Darling, Clement-ine
Ok. So it looks like the Red Sox are in trouble if the Yankees get Randy Johnson. Now let's see what happens when we plug Matt Clement and David Wells into the Red Sox rotation. Here are the Win Shares and Wins of the Red Sox rotation last year:
Curt Schilling WS 22
Pedro Martinez WS 17
Tim Wakefield WS 8
Bronson Arroyo WS 11
Derek Lowe WS 6
Ok. Now Wins:
Schilling 21
Martinez 16
Wakefield 12
Arroyo 10
Lowe 14
Except for Lowe, these numbers are pretty even. And Lowe is such a crazy case; the Red Sox offensive fire-power probably helped him out more than any other player. Lowe had a -11.5 VORP last season, so replacing Lowe with basically anybody will be an improvement. David Wells had a 40.3 VORP, so I'd say they're doing fairly well replacing Lowe.
For the Red Sox, the challenge will be reestablish what they had last year after the loss of Pedro Martinez. Now, they've already made improvements replacing Lowe, as noted above. But let's look at Matt Clement's WSs and Ws last year.
Clement WSs 11 Ws 9
So, if the numbers hold true, you can expect a boost for Clement in turning WSs into Ws. And given that Clement was +2 WSAA, and the WSA for the AL is 12, we can pencil Clement in (on last year's performance) for 14 WSs, 14-15 Ws. And though that's lower than Pedro's total, it's pretty comparable. If we compare VORPs, the numbers are a little more in Pedro's favor, 51.2 to 36.9. But comparing Derek Lowe + Pedro Martinez in VORP to David Wells and Matt Clement, you've got 39.7 to 77.2. Just for the fun of it, here's David Wells' WS and W numbers:
Wells WSs 10 Ws 12
So he's +4 WSs on Lowe, to Clement's -5 on Pedro. But if we look at WSAAs, it's a net VORP and WS gain.
The only thing that really makes me wonder is the even-ness at which Red Sox pitchers converted WSs into Ws. If we look merely at that, it looks like a net loss of Ws for the Sox. But it looks as though there's more to the story. There's no reason to think that the boost won't be more evenly distributed next year.
Note: this is not a prediction of the future. It's speculation on what would have happened had the Red Sox HAD Matt Clement and David Wells LAST YEAR. And, it turns out, things are pretty much even (maybe a little better). David Wells could die for all I know.
Here's hoping they can find a decent replacement for Curt Schilling.
Curt Schilling WS 22
Pedro Martinez WS 17
Tim Wakefield WS 8
Bronson Arroyo WS 11
Derek Lowe WS 6
Ok. Now Wins:
Schilling 21
Martinez 16
Wakefield 12
Arroyo 10
Lowe 14
Except for Lowe, these numbers are pretty even. And Lowe is such a crazy case; the Red Sox offensive fire-power probably helped him out more than any other player. Lowe had a -11.5 VORP last season, so replacing Lowe with basically anybody will be an improvement. David Wells had a 40.3 VORP, so I'd say they're doing fairly well replacing Lowe.
For the Red Sox, the challenge will be reestablish what they had last year after the loss of Pedro Martinez. Now, they've already made improvements replacing Lowe, as noted above. But let's look at Matt Clement's WSs and Ws last year.
Clement WSs 11 Ws 9
So, if the numbers hold true, you can expect a boost for Clement in turning WSs into Ws. And given that Clement was +2 WSAA, and the WSA for the AL is 12, we can pencil Clement in (on last year's performance) for 14 WSs, 14-15 Ws. And though that's lower than Pedro's total, it's pretty comparable. If we compare VORPs, the numbers are a little more in Pedro's favor, 51.2 to 36.9. But comparing Derek Lowe + Pedro Martinez in VORP to David Wells and Matt Clement, you've got 39.7 to 77.2. Just for the fun of it, here's David Wells' WS and W numbers:
Wells WSs 10 Ws 12
So he's +4 WSs on Lowe, to Clement's -5 on Pedro. But if we look at WSAAs, it's a net VORP and WS gain.
The only thing that really makes me wonder is the even-ness at which Red Sox pitchers converted WSs into Ws. If we look merely at that, it looks like a net loss of Ws for the Sox. But it looks as though there's more to the story. There's no reason to think that the boost won't be more evenly distributed next year.
Note: this is not a prediction of the future. It's speculation on what would have happened had the Red Sox HAD Matt Clement and David Wells LAST YEAR. And, it turns out, things are pretty much even (maybe a little better). David Wells could die for all I know.
Here's hoping they can find a decent replacement for Curt Schilling.
posted by dd0031 at 10:45 AM
4 Comments:
ooooh, fun! do me next! how many WS and Ws will i have?
Barr: WS 0 W 0
Effect on Red Sox: number of people who run around clubhouse declaring that "Jason Varitek is dumb. Johnny Damon eats glue. The sign knows all.": +1
freakin' sweet, dude! the sign knows all!
I didn't follow all that, but it's possible Clement will be helped by changing leagues, too. Just a thought.
R
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